FRi3D: A Realistic Model of Solar Eruptions
At Rays of Space, our mission is to deepen understanding of solar activity and improve space weather forecasting capabilities. Development of a three-dimensional model FRi3D (Flux Rope in 3D) is part of this ongoing effort. FRi3D is the state-of-the-art tool for modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs can significantly impact satellite operations, power infrastructure, and navigation systems. Predicting their arrival times and magnetic structures is therefore crucial to protecting both spaceborne and ground-based technologies.
Comprehensive 3D Flux-Rope Representation
Conventional CME models often approximate complex structures as simple cones or other idealized geometries. To overcome these limitations, Rays of Space developed FRi3D, an analytic model that faithfully captures:
Full 3D Geometry: FRi3D represents CMEs as croissant-shaped flux ropes anchored at the Sun, naturally incorporating the CME’s curvature, apex, and legs.
Realistic Deformations: The model simulates key evolutionary processes—deflections, rotations, front flattening, pancaking (latitudinal stretching), and skewing due to solar rotation—ensuring the modeled structure closely matches observed CME morphologies.
Robust Magnetic Configuration: FRi3D embeds a low-twist magnetic field with conserved flux, which reproduces well spacecraft measurements of CMEs. It bridges remote-sensing and directly measured data by providing a unified framework that can be fitted to both types of observations.
ai.fri3d: Open Source FRi3D Library
To facilitate the use of FRi3D across research institutions, industry partners, and educational settings, Rays of Space also developed the ai.fri3d Python package. This software implementation of the FRi3D model makes it straightforward for researchers to:
Generate FRi3D Structures Programmatically: Users can easily create 3D CME configurations with customizable geometries and magnetic properties through Python interfaces.
Integrate with Data Analysis Pipelines: The ai.fri3d package allows seamless integration into Python-based workflows, enabling researchers to incorporate FRi3D modeling into their data processing, visualization, and event analysis routines.
Accelerate Research and Development: By lowering the barrier to entry, ai.fri3d encourages experimentation with model parameters, supports fitting CME events against real observations, and promotes collaborative development of space weather forecasting tools.
Integration into EUHFORIA
EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FOrecasting Information Asset) is a state-of-the-art heliospheric simulation tool used for forecasting solar wind conditions and CME propagation. Prior to FRi3D’s integration, EUHFORIA relied on simpler models that struggled to capture complex CME geometries and field configurations.
With FRi3D implemented into EUHFORIA—and supported by the ai.fri3d package—users can now:
Model Realistic CME Encounters: FRi3D’s 3D structure, integrated via ai.fri3d, enables EUHFORIA to simulate CME encounters that more closely reflect what spacecraft actually measure, especially in flank passages.
Improve Magnetic Field Predictions: Utilizing FRi3D and ai.fri3d, EUHFORIA now produces more reliable forecasts of critical magnetic parameters, notably the Bz component at Earth, aiding in the prediction of geomagnetic storm intensity.
Incorporate Observation-Based Constraints: The Python package streamlines the process of fitting FRi3D parameters to observed CME events. By feeding optimized parameters directly into EUHFORIA, the simulation results become more accurate, data-driven, and useful for operational forecasting.
Demonstrated Performance and Validation
Rays of Space’s integrated solution—FRi3D modeling with ai.fri3d, combined with EUHFORIA simulations—has shown tangible improvements in predictive capabilities. For the well-documented 12 July 2012 CME, EUHFORIA runs initialized with FRi3D provided enhanced agreement with in-situ spacecraft measurements compared to simpler models. This led to better forecasts of the Dst index, a key metric of geomagnetic storm severity, demonstrating that the enhanced realism of the FRi3D model and its Python implementation directly translates into more trustworthy space weather forecasts.
Ongoing Development and Future Outlook
Rays of Space continues to refine and extend the FRi3D model:
Refinement of Magnetic Profiles: Future updates to ai.fri3d will incorporate more nuanced field distributions and twist profiles, further improving accuracy and applicability across a broader array of CME events.
Expanded Data Integration: Incorporating data from multiple spacecraft and heliospheric imagers into the ai.fri3d-based workflows will reduce uncertainties and enable finer-tuned parameter estimation.
Towards Operational Forecasting: With continued enhancements, FRi3D and ai.fri3d will become foundational elements in near-real-time forecasting tools, enabling agencies, industries, and researchers to anticipate and mitigate the effects of space weather disturbances more effectively.
Conclusion
The development and integration of the FRi3D model and its Python package ai.fri3d into EUHFORIA marks commitment to advancing space weather science and operational forecasting. By offering a fully 3D, analytically robust model of CMEs, along with user-friendly software tools, we empower the community to push the boundaries of accuracy, reliability, and utility in space weather prediction.
